Most of us aren’t aware of the upcoming Atlantic Hurricane Season this year which is noted to be potentially active as from the beginning. It might sometimes result in high temperatures in many areas of the oceans in the world which would dominate for a quite long period.
As per the predictions of Penn State which is also known as The Earth System Science Center, the whole world will have to end 2020 facing 15-24 active tropical storms by the end. Perhaps this will not sound big for some of you but for the ones who don’t know the number of storms which we have experienced in the past, it’ll appear as a quite big number. We only had 19 tropical storms between the years 2012, 2019.
The predictions of the Penn State are as follows:
This prediction is for 19.8 +/- 4.4 total named tropical cyclones, which correlates to a number of hurricanes between 15 and 24 storms. The best estimated number of storms are 20. The prediction was created with the use of the Kozar et al’s statistical model. (2012, see PDF here). This statistical model builds upon the past work of Sabbatelli and Mann (2007, see PDF here) by considering a larger number of climate predictors and including corrections for the historical under count of events (see footnotes).
The assumptions behind this forecast are (a) the persistence of current North Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (+1.1 °C in early to mid-April 2020 from NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch) throughout the 2020 hurricane season, (b) the development of mild El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-negative conditions by boreal late summer and early fall 2020 (ENSO forecasts here; we used mid-April 2020), and (c) climatological mean conditions for the North Atlantic Oscillation in boreal fall/winter 2020-2021.
If no La Niña develops, then the prediction will be slightly lower: 18.3 +/- 4.3 storms (range of 14-23 storms, with a best guess of 19).
We predict one of the most active Atlantic hurricane seasons on record (20±4 named storms) | “The 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Penn State ESSC Forecast”: https://t.co/MNs6uvpX0Z@Penn_State @PSUClimate @PSUEarth @PSUEMS pic.twitter.com/VfKa89cuNl
— Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) April 27, 2020
Some predictions among these said that these trouble causing storms aren’t likely to hit the lands. Both the pandemic outbreak and the hurricane season will surely be hazardous scenes which cause too much trouble to mankind. Stress areas from a hurricane would be enhanced intensely.
The reports of the CBS News on the Hurricanes:
“Each of these disasters stretch the limits of our ability to respond. Multiple major disasters is an unfortunate new reality that we are not ready for,” shared Schlegelmilch who is very concerned about the response of the government of the US on the ongoing pandemic outbreak. According to his ideas the stress caused from the hurricanes might further increase the vulnerabilities of the US citizens.
And also Schlegelmilch says that the virus spread is more likely to get increased with the occurrence of another landfalling hurricane. He warned, “increased transmission of COVID-19 in congregate settings such as shelters, with disrupted infrastructure, such as loss of power, and a myriad of other realities.”
“Prepare now, and expect less,” Schlegelmilch’s advice. “That is the unfortunate reality we are in.”
He also says that the less preparation for the upcoming hurricanes would still cause harm to the people even though the first responders for the hurricanes would do their best to help others.
“You can’t summon new capabilities and capacities in a moment of panic. They take years and require significant commitments from politicians, legislators and the private sector to build lasting resilience,” he stated.
What’s your idea about the sequence of incidents which we’re going to go through for the upcoming months? According to me, I think the hurricane season won’t cause much destruction for us. Instead the season will be quite more hectic than the other ones but we’ll still be able to survive it. Although it’s terrifying, we have our strength, I hope. But, the reports reveal that it’ll be able to break many of the hurricane records which were noted since the past years if it becomes worse.